Net US Migration to Fall to 321,000 in 2026, Reshaping Hiring

Net international migration to the United States fell from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025, and the Census Bureau expects it to drop to 321,000 in 2026. That collapse in new arrivals, combined with a fertility rate that crested in 2007 and an accelerating wave of baby boomer retirements, is the demographic shift employers can no longer treat as a distant problem. For HR leaders, it touches nearly every people-process decision: sourcing, retention, pay strategy, and the pace of automation.

The Congressional Budget Office expects the US population to keep growing for a while. It projects a peak of 364 million in 2056 before decline sets in. But the topline number hides the question that matters for hiring managers: whether enough working-age people will live in the places that need them. Fewer babies born years ago now means fewer adults entering the labor force today.

What does the immigration crackdown change?

Immigration has historically supplied roughly half of America's job growth, according to Pia Orrenius, a labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "Immigration is usually about half our job growth," she said. When fewer immigrants arrive, employers struggle to fill jobs, especially in fast-growing regions, and the effects ripple through output, growth, and consumer demand, because immigrants are consumers as well as workers.

Orrenius points to Texas as a case study. The state is in the middle of a manufacturing boom and is building out data centers. "We grow fast, and we depend on immigrants and migrants from other states to fuel that growth," she said. Stagnant regions will feel less pain. High-growth labor markets will feel it sharply.

The policy environment has tightened beyond border enforcement. The White House has undertaken mass deportation efforts, revoked thousands of visas for students and workers, and ended protections for hundreds of thousands of people from countries including Venezuela and Haiti. Whether a white-collar tech engineer or a blue-collar roofer, non-native workers across the economic spectrum face a less welcoming United States.

Immigrants do not simply take jobs that would otherwise go to US-born workers, the analysis notes. The two groups often perform different, complementary work, and immigrants generate demand by buying groceries, renting apartments, and starting businesses.

How far does the damage spread?

Tourism adds another layer. Leigh Barnes, North America president of Intrepid Travel, reported steep declines in inbound visitors: 67% fewer Canadians traveling to the US from 2025 to 2026, a 30% drop from Australia and New Zealand, and a 24% decrease from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. He attributes the falls to a mix of politics and economics. Canadians have had a "visceral" response to the administration's stance toward their country, while Australian and British visitors cite financial pressures at home and rising costs in the US.

Once tourists arrive, Barnes said, they often discover "everyone's bloody lovely." The barrier is perception at the border. "It's that trepidation and concern coming into the border," he said.

Internal mobility compounds the problem. William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at Brookings Metro, said Americans are moving less than they once did. "People are just a little less footloose," he said. The result will be more parts of the country emptying out, especially rural areas that cannot match the jobs and amenities of populated regions.

Aging cuts across every geography. "That's probably a bigger, broader concern," Frey said. Boomers are exiting the workforce, and there are not enough young workers to backfill their jobs or replace their tax dollars. The shift also changes the mix of jobs the economy needs, including care work for the growing older population.

What does this mean for workers and employers?

For workers entering the labor market around 2040, the picture is favorable. Steven Ruggles, a regents professor of history at the University of Minnesota, said they will face a "pretty darn good" labor market. Companies will compete for scarce talent, which means greater leverage, stronger job prospects, and higher pay for those who remain.

Ruggles draws a historical contrast. "When the baby boomers entered the labor market, the labor unions disintegrated because they no longer had any bargaining power because workers were a dime a dozen," he said. The coming era reverses that dynamic.

Employers will also push harder on productivity. "If there's a shortage of workers, you expect there to be a lot of incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving devices like AI and other things that increase productivity," Ruggles said.

The durability of current conditions remains uncertain. Immigration policy could shift again with the political winds, covering green cards, student visas, and enforcement, and tourism may rebound. Low birth rates and an aging population are far less likely to reverse, which means workforce planners should treat scarcity of young talent as a structural condition rather than a temporary cycle.