The global professional development market exceeds $400 billion, with nearly one-third of that spend covering topics and technologies not tied to any single company, according to a December 2025 analysis from industry researcher Josh Bersin.

A post on the JOSH BERSIN blog titled "The Collapse And Rebirth Of Online Learning And Professional Development" frames the present moment as a structural reset for the training industry. The piece traces three decades of demand met by online course libraries, video libraries, simulations, and expert assessments.

HR leaders now face a clearer question. Where do those legacy formats fit inside the 2026 learning stack?

What sits inside the $400 billion market

The figure, cited in the December Bersin post, covers worldwide spend on training, certification, and upskilling. Almost a third of the total targets content any employee across any industry could use. The remainder sits inside employer-tailored programs tied to specific roles, internal systems, or regulatory mandates.

That split shapes how HR budgets weather disruption. The non-company-specific segment is the portion most exposed to free content, open credentials, and emerging learning technologies. The employer-specific segment remains harder to replace and tends to command longer contracts and distinct procurement cycles.

Which formats defined the past thirty years

The Bersin analysis identifies five categories of training delivery that built the modern market:

• Online course libraries offered to enterprise buyers
• Video libraries featuring subject-matter experts
• Simulations for technical and interpersonal practice
• Expert assessments measuring competency against benchmarks
• Certification and upskilling programs recognized across industries

The five formats carried different roles inside a learning stack. Course libraries provided breadth across many subjects. Video libraries delivered expert voice at scale. Simulations allowed rehearsal of high-stakes tasks. Expert assessments benchmarked skill levels. Certification programs conferred portable credentials across employers.

The dominance of each format shifted over the three decades the post covers. Course libraries scaled first through enterprise licenses. Video libraries followed as production costs fell. Simulations grew as learning science matured. Expert assessments expanded with the rise of skills-based hiring. Certifications gained weight as workers changed jobs more often.

What the "collapse and rebirth" framing implies for HR

The title of the post signals the central argument. Bersin positions the current period as a collapse of the old market structure followed by a rebirth around new delivery models.

HR executives now face a planning question for the year ahead. The training formats that defined the 2010s no longer hold the same position inside enterprise learning strategies. New formats demand fresh vendor evaluation, fresh budget review, and fresh measurement frameworks.

The collapse refers to legacy vendors losing pricing power as content became widely available. The rebirth refers to platforms built on newer technology stacks and tighter integration with HR data.

How HR leaders can sharpen their next move

Buyers within learning and development can sharpen evaluation criteria in light of the analysis. The implication is that library size and course count matter less than they did five years ago. Differentiation now rests on integration, personalization, and outcome measurement.

Questions worth bringing into 2026 vendor reviews include:

• Which skills frameworks or HRIS systems does the platform connect to?
• How does the system update recommendations as roles evolve?
• Which on-the-job outcome metrics accompany the contract?
• How does the vendor demonstrate behavior change rather than only course completion?

What comes after the reset

Bersin positions 2025 as a transition point between market cycles, according to the post. HR teams built on a single legacy provider now face a moment of choice between renewal and replacement of long-standing contracts.

The path forward will favor buyers who can compare formats on outcome data rather than seat counts. CHROs and chief learning officers will set the tone through contract decisions over the next twelve months. Their choices will reshape how the $400 billion market allocates itself inside individual enterprises.

HR Briefing will track how chief learning officers respond to the reset through the year ahead.